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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 36

Miami Dolphins 13 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(11:01) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.04 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP