Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 19 at the 79

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to MIA 34, Center-46-T.Pepper. 83-M.Washington to MIA 43 for 9 yards (82-E.Saubert). PENALTY on MIA-32-P.McMorris, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 42.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.71 EP
73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 79, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model