Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 63

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Baltimore Ravens 34

(1:52) 8-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to BAL 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 35-D.King MUFFS catch, recovered by BAL-54-K.Welch at BAL 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.74 EP
69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -2.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model