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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 6

Baltimore Ravens 31 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +3.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.53 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 6, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.83 EP