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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 50

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Baltimore Ravens 31

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 8-C.Waitman punts 42 yards to BAL 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 35-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.39 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 50, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.62 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model