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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 89

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 8-C.Waitman punts 58 yards to BAL 31, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 35-D.King to BAL 47 for 16 yards (42-J.Pierre). FUMBLES (42-J.Pierre), recovered by BAL-49-C.Board at PIT 41.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth -0.16 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 89, worth -5.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.95 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 46, worth -2.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP