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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 62

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.17 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP