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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 33

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.18 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model