Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New York Giants 0

(8:15) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to NYG 24, Center-49-L.McCullough. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 30 for 6 yards (35-N.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.96 EP
48% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 70, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model