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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 53

Atlanta Falcons 34 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to NYG 11, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.34 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 53, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP