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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 61

New York Giants 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to ATL 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.85 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 61, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 20, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model