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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 64

New York Giants 7 – Atlanta Falcons 31

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to ATL 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.87 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 64, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 22, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model