Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 66

New York Giants 7 – Atlanta Falcons 24

(13:42) 6-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to ATL 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 26-A.Williams to ATL 31 for 6 yards (24-D.Belton; 59-C.Kreiter).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.10 EP
58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 66, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model