Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 60

New York Giants 7 – Atlanta Falcons 10

(5:16) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to ATL 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.67 EP
68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 60, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model