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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 60

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 17-R.Wright punts 51 yards to SEA 9, Center-42-A.DePaola. 1-J.Darden to SEA 13 for 4 yards (11-T.Sherfield).

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.76 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 60, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 19, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model