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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 73

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to SEA 17, Center-42-A.DePaola. 1-J.Darden ran ob at SEA 32 for 15 yards (32-T.Chandler).

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.49 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 73, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 31, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP