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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 59

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(12:30) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.84 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 59, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model