4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 30

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 16-W.Reichard 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.42 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model