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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 40

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(12:16) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson ran ob at SEA 32 for 8 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.27 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.92 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.27 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model