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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 79

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to MIN 29, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.62 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 79, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 36, worth -1.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model