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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 79

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(10:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to MIN 33, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.37 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 79, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 36, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP