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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 20

New York Jets 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(1:50) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at LA 12 for 8 yards (39-J.McCollough).

The Three Options

GO +2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.95 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 20, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model