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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 31

New York Jets 9 – Los Angeles Rams 19

What Actually Happened

(2:02) 18-A.Carlson 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.57 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model