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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 18 at the 27

Los Angeles Rams 16 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 16-J.Karty 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.21 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 27, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 37, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model