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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 3

New York Jets 6 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(:03) 18-A.Carlson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +3.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.90 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 3, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +2.92 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP