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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 67

New York Jets 6 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(8:01) (Shotgun) 20-B.Hall up the middle to NYJ 33 for no gain (48-O.Speights).

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.79 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 25, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model