4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(5:20) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to JAX 14, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Duvernay MUFFS catch, and recovers at JAX 9.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.37 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 27, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model