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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 16 at the 56

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 9-L.Cooke punts 36 yards to LV 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.34 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 56, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model