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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(14:07) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to JAX 17, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Duvernay ran ob at JAX 25 for 8 yards (56-A.Burney; 20-I.Pola-Mao).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 65, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 23, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model