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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 48

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to LV 3, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.91 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 48, worth -3.15 EP
KICK -1.43 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.21 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model