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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 41

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 6-A.Cole punts 31 yards to JAX 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.62 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 41, worth -1.77 EP
KICK -0.02 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP