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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 19

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 2-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.05 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 19, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model