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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 61

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 73-B.Hance reported in as eligible. 4-T.Bigsby right guard to JAX 49 for 10 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao; 18-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.83 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 61, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 20, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model