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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 71

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to LV 27, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 8-A.Abdullah to LV 36 for 9 yards (57-C.Johnson; 20-D.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.95 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model