Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 13 at the 67

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Houston Texans 3

(1:22) 14-M.Araiza punts 49 yards to HOU 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.85 EP
68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model