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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 15

Houston Texans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 15-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.78 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 15, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model