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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 20 at the 20

Houston Texans 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(11:56) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
  • 20% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.32 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 20, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model