Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 79

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Houston Texans 10

(13:26) 14-M.Araiza punts 41 yards to HOU 38, Center-41-J.Winchester. 3-T.Dell to 50 for 12 yards (83-N.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.71 EP
63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model