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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 11

Chicago Bears 17 – Detroit Lions 34

What Actually Happened

(2:36) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 2-D.Moore [32-B.Branch].

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.19 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model