Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 69

Chicago Bears 17 – Detroit Lions 34

(11:59) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 13-K.Allen to CHI 41 for 10 yards (0-T.Arnold).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

What Happened

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.00 EP
61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 69, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.42 EP