4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 12

Chicago Bears 14 – Detroit Lions 34

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.86 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model