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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 45

Chicago Bears 14 – Detroit Lions 34

What Actually Happened

(9:09) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 15-R.Odunze to DET 15 for 30 yards (21-A.Robertson).

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.10 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 45, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model