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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 31

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(9:18) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to DET 18 for 13 yards (32-B.Branch). CHI-70-B.Jones was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.35 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 31, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model