Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 73

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 0

(14:00) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to DET 24, Center-46-S.Daly. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 33 for 9 yards (46-S.Daly).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.52 EP
65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 73, worth -4.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model