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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 50

Denver Broncos 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to LAC 5, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-1-T.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.96 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model