Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 84

Denver Broncos 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(:08) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to LAC 38, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. PENALTY on DEN-1-T.Smith, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 38.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.05 EP
65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 84, worth -3.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model