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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 16-J.Scott punts 38 yards to DEN 28, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.70 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model