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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 19

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(8:53) 11-C.Dicker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.94 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 19, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP