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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 25

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +2.79 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.18 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model