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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 57

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(8:02) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to TB 15, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-36-J.Taylor. PENALTY on LAC-36-J.Taylor, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at TB 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.84 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model